Publications 發表
Economic Forecasting: A Comparison of Time Series Methods and Neural Network 經濟預測：時間序列方法與神經網絡模型比較
Authors: 作者: Hui-Chih Shen 沈暉智
Master Thesis, University of Konstanz 康斯坦茲大學碩士論文 • 2023
This paper explores the forecasting performance for global shipping rates, comparing time series models (VAR) and neural network models for predicting the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and Kilian Index. The research finds that VAR models perform better in most scenarios, while neural networks are suitable for long-term trend forecasting. Additionally, the impact of major international events significantly affects forecasting accuracy; when these events are excluded, the performance difference between different models diminishes. 探討國際乾貨航運價格預測，比較時間序列模型（VAR）與神經網絡模型（RNN/LSTM）的預測表現。研究發現，VAR 模型能勝任大多數情境的預測，而神經網絡模型適合長期趨勢預測。此外，重大國際事件對預測準確性有顯著影響；當排除這些事件時，不同模型之間的表現差異會減小。
The Impact of Household Income and Assets on Children's Education - Evidence from Tax Data of 1993-1995 Birth Cohorts and Their Parents 論家戶所得與資產對子女教育之影響 — 以1993–1995 出生世代及其父母稅務資料為例
Authors: 作者: Hui-Chih Shen, Ming-Jen Lin 沈暉智、林明仁
Taiwan Economic Review 經濟論文叢刊 • 2019
This paper explores intergenerational income mobility through the education channel. We use 2000–2015 household income data provided by the Fiscal Information Agency. We find a strong correlation between household income and access to higher education. The median of yearly household income in the full sample is 0.86 million NTD, while the medians among National Taiwan University students and public university students are higher than 1.5 and 1 million NTD respectively. We look into asset distribution in every education category, finding a huge amount of wealth inequality and rigidity of intergenerational mobility. The positive correlation between education subsidy and students' household income shows that government subsidy may lead to income redistribution from the poor to the rich. 分析財稅資料中心提供 2000-2015 年之母體稅務資料，探討親代所得與資產如何影響子代教育取得之機會。為碩士論文改寫刊登於經濟論文叢刊、並與報導者合作發表專欄
Can Education Transform Lives? The Reverse Redistribution in Higher Education 【數字說話】教育能翻轉人生嗎──高教的反向重分配現象
Authors: 作者: RedHerrings, Hui-Chih Shen, The Reporter Editorial Team RedHerrings、沈暉智、報導者團隊
The Reporter 報導者 • 2018
An analysis of educational inequality and socioeconomic mobility in Taiwan's higher education system. 探討台灣高等教育系統中的教育不平等與社會經濟流動性。